The RFK Jr. phenomenon
How big a threat to Trump?
In this post, I discussed the likelihood that Joe Biden will lose votes due to his show of support for Israel in the days immediately following Hamas’ massacre in Israel. That show of support, even though mostly for show, was bound to antagonize Muslim/Arab-Americans and some non-Muslim/Arab leftists.
And so it has. Biden’s support among Arab-Americans has plummeted. His job approval among Democrats has tumbled.
This development may explain, in part, why Biden keeps talking about the supposed danger of “Islamophobia” in America and why he is pushing for Israel to grant a cease fire (which Biden calls “a humanitarian pause”) in Gaza. He’s afraid that, come Election Day, voters he relies on, especially in Michigan, will either stay home or vote for Cornel West — an independent candidate who is spewing vitriol against Israel.
But any benefit Donald Trump (who I’m assuming will be the GOP nominee) gets from West’s candidacy, or from anti-Israel voters staying home, will probably be more than offset by the candidacy of Robert Kennedy Jr.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point — 47 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error — in a head-to-head matchup. But with Kennedy in a three-way race, Biden is ahead with 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent and Kennedy’s 22 percent. . . .
Other polls have found Kennedy may hurt Trump more than Biden in a general election, including a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from last month that found Kennedy costs Trump what would be a narrow lead in a hypothetical race. . . .
The Quinnipiac poll found that adding progressive activist Cornel West, who is also running as an independent, for a four-way race leaves Biden with a narrower lead than he had in the three-way race. He leads with 36 percent, while Trump has 35 percent, Kennedy has 19 percent and West has 6 percent.
Kennedy, by the way, has backed Israel’s right to wage a sustained war against Hamas. (His father was assassinated by a Palestinian.)
Kennedy Jr. initially ran as a Democrat and as a leftist alternative to Biden. His campaign manager was Dennis Kucinich, a far left-winger.
But Kennedy realized his effort to defeat Biden for the nomination was futile, so now (like West) he’s running as an independent. And sensing that his best chance in that incarnation is to pick up support from the right-wing, Kennedy has moved to the right. That’s why Kucinich resigned from the campaign.
That Kennedy sensed the political landscape correctly is evident from the Quinnipiac poll. It’s also evident from the fact that, according to Politico, he has been receiving donations from former Trump donors at a much higher rate than from former Biden donors.
I doubt that, come Election Day, Kennedy will get anywhere close to 22 percent of the popular vote. For what it’s worth, I think he’ll be lucky to get half that share.
Still, the fact that so many people say they favor RFK Jr. cries out for explanation.
The easy explanation is that America is dissatisfied with the candidates likely to be served up by the two major political parties. Polls have reflected such dissatisfaction.
But this doesn’t fully explain Kennedy’s numbers, which easily exceeds the percentage of voters who say they are dissatisfied with both major candidates. Nor does it explain why so many Trump donors are now giving money to RFK Jr. If these donors previously contributed to Trump’s campaign, how anti-Trump can they be?
Apparently, Ron DeSantis couldn’t make inroads with Trump’s backers. Neither could Vivek Ramaswamy with his Trumpy message, which might be just as well.
But Kennedy, a wild conspiracy theorist and man of the left whose only real claim to fame is a famous name, seems to be making significant inroads with members of Trump’s base.
This development, though unexpected, isn’t all that surprising. After all, Trump himself is something of a conspiracy theorist — more markedly these days than before. He, too, was once more of a liberal than a conservative. And his name (or “brand”) was a significant factor in his rise.
How ironic it would be if Trump meets his Waterloo because core supporters defect to a quack like RFK Jr.
I agree Kennedy wouldn't get anywhere near 22 percent, so I don't think the current polls are much value, for they don't tell us where the, say, half or more of the 22 percent will go come election season (there really isn't an Election Day anymore). They're disgruntled voters, upset at a status quo that is Joe Biden, so I think there's a good chance they would vote for Trump or stay home. Jim Dueholm
Some young people I know are very interested in Kennedy’s candidacy. They are conservative leaning and really dislike Biden and most Democrat politicians. So many conspiracy theories during their young lives have shown to be true ( Covid, Russian hoax, Hunter Biden laptop, etc.) that they think Kennedy must have inside knowledge about vaccines and the elder Kennedys’ deaths. They don’t want to be deceived again and made to feel like fools.